Domestic tourism under pressure
After several years of growth, domestic overnight tourism is expected to decline by around 1% in 2026. The total number of Dutch overnight visitors is therefore expected to reach approximately 30 million. According to NBTC, the higher VAT rate on accommodation may encourage Dutch travellers to choose more affordable alternatives abroad, such as holidays in Germany or Belgium.
At the same time, several factors continue to support domestic tourism. Interest in holidays within the Netherlands is increasing slightly, while economic conditions are more favourable than last year, with lower inflation and rising household consumption.
International growth continues
International overnight tourism is expected to continue growing, although at a slower pace. In 2026, the number of international overnight visitors is projected to increase by approximately 2.4%, equivalent to around half a million additional visitors. This would bring the total number of international guests to approximately 23 million.
Europe remains by far the most important source market, accounting for around 80% of international visits. Germany remains the largest market, although growth in German visitors is expected to remain limited. Belgium and the United Kingdom are also expected to show moderate growth. Travellers from these countries tend to respond relatively quickly to rising prices and adjust their travel behaviour accordingly.
Growth from long-haul markets
At the same time, stronger growth is expected from other parts of the world. Visitor numbers from the United States are projected to rise by around 5%. Overnight tourism from Asia is expected to grow even more strongly, driven in part by increasing visitor numbers from India and China. A clear rise in visitors from Africa and the Middle East is also expected.
Shorter stays expected
As prices continue to rise, researchers expect travellers to shorten their stays more frequently. Visitors from the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and the United Kingdom are expected to book fewer nights or opt for shorter holidays. As a result, the average length of stay in the Netherlands may decline slightly.
Cautious optimism
Despite continued pressure on prices and costs, NBTC remains cautiously positive about the outlook for the sector. The international economy is growing moderately, inflation is easing and holidays in the Netherlands continue to be regarded as high quality. According to the organisation, the full VAT increase is also unlikely to be passed directly on to consumers.
Source: NBTC, editorially adapted
